Compensatory Selection Predictions

March 11th, 2014

The Lions are expected to receive a 4th round comp pick for Gosder Cherilus (photo from Colts Authority)

 

Will Richards, DLD Scout

A total of 32 compensatory selections are awarded every year to teams who have lost significant value in free agency. Value is determined almost exclusively by the AAV (Approximate Average Value) of a contract. Players are sorted into tiers based on how much they got paid, as well as things like number of snaps played, and unforeseen circumstances such as a forced retirement. Once all the free agents who moved are accounted for, the league tallies up value and rewards draft picks to teams who lost value.

Players who are cut and signed as unrestricted free agents don’t have any value in the compensatory selection formula, nor do players who are claimed via waivers.

The Picks are slotted at the end of each round and the order is determined by the value lost in free agency. I don’t have the information necessary to make that distinction so all predictions are only to the level of which round the pick will be in. If you see something that doesn’t look right, leave a comment and I’ll look into it.

3rd round value: 10+ million AAV

4th round value: 5.5-10 AAV

5th round value: 3.5-5.5 AAV

6th round value: 2-3.5 AAV

7th round value: 1-2 AAV

NFC North

Lions: Glover Quin, Reggie Bush, and Jason Jones cancel out Sammie Lee Hill, Cliff Avril, and Justin Durant.

The Lions will receive a 4th round pick for Gosder Cherilus

Packers: Packers signed no Free Agents

Packers will receive a 4th round pick for Greg Jennins

Packers will receive a 5th round pick Erik Walden.

Bears: Martellus Bennet, Jermon Bushrod and Matt Slauson cancel out Jason Campbell and Lance Louis

Bears will receive no compensatory picks

Vikings: Greg Jennings cancels out Jasper Brinkley

Vikings will receive no compensatory picks.

NFC South

Falcons: Osi Umenyiora and Steven Jackson cancel out Will Svitek, Vance Walker, and Brent Grimes

The Falcons will receive no compensatory picks

Saints: Victor Butler, Ben Watson, and Keenan Lewis cancel out Jermon Bushrod, Jonathan Casillas, and Chase Daniel

The Saints will receive no compensatory picks.

Panthers: Mike Mitchell, Ted Ginn Jr. Dwan Edwards, Chase Blackburn, and Domenik Hixon cancel out Mike Pollack, and Gary Barnidge

The Panthers will receive no compensatory picks.

Bucs: Dashon Goldson, Jonathan Casillas, and Derek Landri cancel out Michael Bennett, and EJ Biggers

The Bucs will receive no compensatory picks.

NFC West

49ers: Glenn Dorsey, Craig Dahl, and Dan Skuta cancel out Ted Ginn Jr. and Ricky Jean-Francois

49ers will receive a 4th round pick for Dashon Goldson.

49ers will receive a 5th round pick for Delanie Walker.

49ers will receive a 5th round pick for Isaac Sopoaga.

Seahawks: Cliff Avril and Michael Bennett cancel out Jason Jones and Alan Branch

The Seahawks will receive no compensatory picks.

Cardinals: Rashard Mendenhall, Matt Shaughnessy, and the 5 other players with compensatory implications that the Cardinals signed cancel out Greg Toler and Quentin Groves.

The Cardinals will receive no compensatory picks.

Rams: Jared Cook and Chris Long cancel out Danny Amendola, Steven Jackson, and Rob Turner

The Rams will receive a 7th round selection for Mike Mitchell

The Rams will receive a 7th round selection for Craig Dahl

The Rams will receive a 6th round selection for Brandon Gibson

The Rams will receive a 6th round selection for Bradley Fletcher

NFC East

Cowboys: Justin Durant cancels out John Phillips

The Cowboys will receive a 7th round pick for Mike Jenkins

The Cowboys will receive a 7th round pick for Victor Butler

Giants: Brandon Myers cancels out Domenik Hixon

The Giants will receive a 5th round pick for Osi Umenyiora.

The Giants will receive a 5th round pick for Martellus Bennett

The Giants will receive a 7th round pick for Chase Blackburn

The Giants will receive a 7th round pick for Kenny Phillips

Eagles: Connor Barwin, Cary Williams, Patrick Chung and assorted others cancel out Derek Landri, DRC, and King Dunlap

The Eagles will receive no compensatory picks.

Redskins: EJ Biggers cancels out Lorenzo Alexander

The Redskins will receive a 7th round pick for their record.

AFC East

Bills: Manny Lawson and Alan Branch cancel out Andy Levitre and Chard Rinehart

The Bills will receive a 7th round pick for Donald Jones

The Bills will receive a 7th round pick for Dwan Edwards

Dolphins: Brent Grimes, Dustin Keller, Phillip Wheeler, Mike Wallace, and others, cancel out Sean Smith, Jake Long Anthony Fasano, and Reggie Bush.

The Dolphins will receive no compensatory picks.

Patriots: Danny Amendola, Will Svitek, and Donald Jones cancel out Wes Welker, Danny Woodhead, and Patrick Chung.

The Patriot will receive no compensatory picks.

Jets: Antwan Barnes and Mike Goodson cancel out Matt Slauson, and Shonn Greene.

The Jets will receive a 4th round pick for Laron Landry

The Jets will receive a 5th round pick for Dustin Keller.

The Jets will receive a 5th round pick for Mike Devito

AFC North

Ravens:

The Ravens will receive a 4th round pick for Cary Williams

(edited to reflect that Elvis Dumervil was not technically lost to free agency)

The Ravens will receive a 4th round pick for Dannell Ellerbe

The Ravens will receive a 4th round pick for Paul Kruger

Bengals: Dan Skuta and Mike Pollack cancel out Manny Lawson and Pat Sims

The Bengals will receive no compensatory picks

Browns: Paul Kruger, Desmond Bryant and Quentin Groves cancel out Jason Campbell, Ben Watson, and Kaluka Maiava

The Browns will receive a 7th round pick for their record.

Steelers: Bruce Gradkowski cancels out Rashard Mendenhall

The Steelers will receive a 3rd round pick for Mike Wallace.

The Steelers will receive a 5th round pick for Keenan Lewis

AFC South

Texans: Ed Reed and Shane Lechler cancel out Glover Quin

The Texans will receive a 4th round pick for Connor Barwin.

The Texans will receive a 5th round pick for James Casey.

The Texans will receive a 7th round pick for their record.

Colts: Gosder Cherilus, Greg Toler, Erik Walden, and Laron Landry cancel out Donnie Avery, Jerraud Powers, Drew Stanton, and Moise Fokou

The Colts will receive no compensatory picks.

Titans: Andy Levitre, Delanie Walker, and a lot of others cancel out Jared Cook.

The Titans will receive no compensatory picks.

Jaguars: Geno Hayes, Justin Forsett, Alan Ball, and Roy Miller cancel out Terrence Knighton and Derek Cox.

The Jaguars will receive a 7th round pick for their record.

AFC West

Broncos: Wes Welker, Louis Vasquez, and others cancel out Tracy Porter and Jason Hunter

The Broncos will receive no compensatory picks.

Chiefs: Mike Devito, Sean Smith, Anthony Fasano and others cancel out Glenn Dorsey, and Ropati Pitoitua

The Chiefs will receive no compensatory picks.

Raiders: Kaluka Maiava, Pat Sims, Jason Hunter, Nic Roach, Tracy Porter, Mike Jenkins, Vance Walker cancel out Desmond Bryant, Shane Lechler, Brandon Myers, Matt Shaughnesy, and Mike Goodson

The Raiders will receive a 5th round pick for Phillip Wheeler.

The Raiders will receive a 7th round pick for their record.

Chargers: King Dunlap, Derek Cox, Danny Woodhead, Chad Rinehart, and John Phillips cancel out Louis Vasquez, Antwan Barnes, Antoine Cason, and Vaughn Martin.

The Chargers will receive no compensatory picks.

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One Response to “Compensatory Selection Predictions”

  1. Comp picks. says:

    [...] Compensatory Selection Predictions | Detroit Lions Draft 5th and 7th Reply With Quote « Previous Thread | Next Thread [...]





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